ABSTRACT
Controlling the COVID-19 outbreak remains a challenge for Cameroon, as it is for many other countries worldwide. The number of confirmed cases reported by health authorities in Cameroon is based on observational data, which is not nationally representative. The actual extent of the outbreak from the time when the first case was reported in the country to now remains unclear. This study aimed to estimate and model the actual trend in the number of COVID -19 new infections in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 based on an observed disaggregated dataset. We used a large disaggregated dataset, and multilevel regression and poststratification model was applied prospectively for COVID-19 cases trend estimation in Cameroon from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021. Subsequently, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling was used for forecasting purposes. Based on the prospective MRP modeling findings, a total of about 7450935 (30%) of COVID-19 cases was estimated from March 05, 2020 to May 31, 2021 in Cameroon. Generally, the reported number of COVID-19 infection cases in Cameroon during this period underestimated the estimated actual number by about 94 times. The forecasting indicated a succession of two waves of the outbreak in the next two years following May 31, 2021. If no action is taken, there could be many waves of the outbreak in the future. To avoid such situations which could be a threat to global health, public health authorities should effectively monitor compliance with preventive measures in the population and implement strategies to increase vaccination coverage in the population.
ABSTRACT
Gross Domestic Product is the aggregate value of all final services and products generated by the country during the measurement period, including private inventories, paid-in capital expenditures, government purchases, personal consumption, and the balance of international commerce. During the Pandemic period of the last two years, the COVID-19 outbreak has caused chaos in the worldwide economy. Sickness outbreaks, supply-chain disruptions, and, more recently, inflation have made policymaking exceedingly difficult. This research aims to forecast GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita for the coming years while also examining historical and present trends in India. This study's objective is to forecast India's future GDP per capita over ten years, from 2021 to 2030, using ARIMA. According to a study, India's GDP per capita has been growing during the last 10 years, and this movement is likely to last over the following ten years. © 2022 IEEE.
ABSTRACT
A time series has been adopted for the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 pandemic in Iraq for a whole year, starting from the first infection recorded on February 18, 2020 until the end of February 2021, which was collected in the form of weekly observations and at a size of 53 observations. The study found the quality and suitability of the autoregressive moving average model from order (1,3) among a group of autoregressive moving average models. This model was built according to the diagnostic criteria. These criteria are the Akaike information criterion, Bayesian Information Criterion, and Hannan & Quinn Criterion models. The study concluded that this model from order (1,3) is good and appropriate, and its predictions can be adopted in making decisions.
ABSTRACT
The recent outbreak of corona virus (COVID-19) infectious disease had made its forecasting critical cornerstones in most scientific studies. This study adopts a machine learning based time series model - Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana over 60 days period. Findings of the study show that COVID-19 confirmed cases in Botswana are steadily rising in a steep upward trend with random fluctuations. This trend can also be described effectively using an additive model when scrutinized in Seasonal Trend Decomposition method by Loess. In selecting the best fit ARIMA model, a Grid Search Algorithm was developed with python language and was used to optimize an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) metric. The best fit ARIMA model was determined at ARIMA (5, 1, 1), which depicted the least AIC score of 3885.091. Results of the study proved that ARIMA model can be useful in generating reliable and volatile forecasts that can used to guide on understanding of the future spread of infectious diseases or pandemics. Most significantly, findings of the study are expected to raise social awareness to disease monitoring institutions and government regulatory bodies where it can be used to support strategic health decisions and initiate policy improvement for better management of the COVID-19 pandemic.